Are Tax Rises on the Horizon? What Accountants Are Watching Ahead of the Autumn Budget
With Rachel Reeves’ first full Autumn Budget scheduled for 26 November 2025, the business community is bracing for what could be one of the most consequential fiscal announcements in recent years.
The Chancellor has already made it clear that the UK’s public finances face pressure — and that “everyone will have to contribute” to restore stability. Against that backdrop, speculation is mounting over potential tax changes designed to raise revenue and reshape the economy in line with her “securonomics” agenda.
Here’s what accountants, business owners, and directors are watching most closely ahead of Budget Day.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT): A Likely Target for Reform
Why it’s being discussed:
Capital Gains Tax has long been viewed as an area where the Government could raise significant revenue without directly increasing income tax or VAT.
At present, CGT rates (10% and 20%) remain lower than income tax rates — a gap some argue is unfair. Aligning the two could potentially generate billions in extra tax receipts.
What might happen:
The Treasury could raise CGT rates closer to income tax levels.
Reliefs such as Business Asset Disposal Relief (formerly Entrepreneurs’ Relief) may be tightened further.
A change to annual CGT allowances or reporting thresholds is also possible.
How to prepare:
Now is the time to review your investment portfolios, property holdings, and business disposal plans. If you’re considering a sale or reorganisation, acting early may help you secure current reliefs before any changes take effect.
Inheritance Tax (IHT): Freezes or Structural Reform?
Why it’s being discussed:
Inheritance Tax thresholds have been frozen since 2009, meaning more estates are pulled into the system each year. At the same time, the Chancellor has signalled that “wealth should work harder for the public good” — prompting speculation of reform.
What might happen:
The nil-rate band (£325,000) and residence nil-rate band (£175,000) could remain frozen beyond 2030.
Potential caps or extended timeframes for gifting exemptions.
A review of Business Property Relief (BPR) and Agricultural Property Relief (APR) — particularly for passive or asset-rich businesses.
How to prepare:
Families and business owners should review estate plans and succession strategies now. Even modest changes to thresholds or reliefs can make a substantial difference to future liabilities.
Corporation Tax: Rates Likely to Hold — But Rules May Tighten
Why it’s being discussed:
At 25%, the UK’s main corporation tax rate is already higher than many would like, but the Chancellor has hinted that “stability, not cuts,” is the priority.
What might happen:
The main rate is expected to remain unchanged, but reliefs and allowances could face review.
HMRC is increasing scrutiny of marginal relief claims and associated company declarations, signalling a tougher compliance environment.
Possible adjustments to capital allowances or targeted incentives for green investment.
How to prepare:
Review your corporation tax calculations and ensure that any marginal relief or group company declarations are accurate. Businesses should also plan for potential tightening of relief rules and focus on digital record-keeping to stay compliant.
VAT: Stability with Selective Adjustments
Why it’s being discussed:
With VAT accounting for roughly 20% of total UK tax receipts, even small tweaks can have wide-reaching impact. However, major reform appears unlikely this year given inflation and the risk to consumer spending.
What might happen:
Minor changes to sector-specific VAT reliefs (e.g. hospitality or energy).
Possible registration threshold review — currently £90,000 — to capture more small businesses.
Closer alignment of Northern Ireland’s VAT treatment with EU trade frameworks.
How to prepare:
Ensure your VAT systems are digital, compliant, and up to date — particularly for businesses trading cross-border. Exchange can help you navigate any upcoming threshold or reporting changes smoothly.
Staying Calm Amid Speculation
While speculation is widespread, none of these changes are confirmed. The key is not to overreact — but to stay informed and plan strategically.
At Exchange Accountants, we’ll be analysing the Autumn Budget announcements as soon as they’re made, turning technical updates into clear, practical guidance for Northern Ireland businesses.
Our team will be on hand to interpret the announcements as soon as they’re made.
If you’d like to discuss how potential changes might affect your business or personal tax position, get in touch.
