What the First Six Weeks of 2026 Are Telling Us About Business Trends
The start of a new year always brings a mix of optimism and caution. By the time February arrives, the initial plans and forecasts for the year are beginning to meet reality.
While it’s still early, the first six weeks of trading often reveal useful signals about how the year may unfold. For many businesses, this period is less about dramatic change and more about understanding the direction of travel.
Here are some of the themes emerging so far in 2026 — and why they matter.
Cashflow Remains a Key Focus
For many businesses, January brings a natural tightening of cashflow. The combination of post-Christmas trading patterns, VAT liabilities and the self-assessment deadline means cash reserves can come under pressure.
We’re seeing many business owners take a more cautious approach to working capital early in the year — reviewing debtor days, delaying non-essential spending and looking more closely at short-term forecasts.
The message is clear: turnover is important, but cash visibility is critical.
Ongoing Cost Pressures
Although inflation has stabilised compared to recent years, cost pressures haven’t disappeared.
Businesses continue to highlight:
increases in supplier pricing
higher energy and operational costs
insurance and compliance expenses
wage expectations rising alongside the cost of living
Rather than sudden shocks, many are experiencing steady margin pressure — which makes regular financial review more important than ever.
Caution Around Recruitment and Pay
Another trend emerging early in 2026 is a more measured approach to recruitment.
Many employers are:
delaying new hires until revenue trends are clearer
reviewing existing team structures
balancing pay increases carefully against affordability
This isn’t a lack of confidence — it’s a reflection of businesses wanting to grow sustainably rather than quickly.
Slower Starts — but Strong Pipelines
January has been a quieter trading period for some sectors, which is not unusual after the Christmas period.
However, many businesses are reporting:
healthy enquiry levels
strong order pipelines
projects scheduled for later in the quarter
In other words, activity may feel slow now, but the outlook for the coming months remains positive.
Why Early-Year Trends Matter
The first six weeks of the year rarely tell the full story — but they do provide early indicators.
Taking time now to review performance allows businesses to:
sense-check forecasts
adjust spending plans if needed
manage cashflow more proactively
plan recruitment and investment with greater confidence
Small adjustments made early often prevent bigger challenges later.
How Exchange Accountants Can Help
At Exchange Accountants, we work closely with clients to interpret what their numbers are really saying — not just at year end, but throughout the year.
Using real-time digital information, we help businesses:
monitor cashflow and working capital
understand margin pressures
compare performance against forecasts
plan ahead with confidence
Because the goal isn’t just to record the numbers — it’s to use them to make better decisions.
Looking Ahead
Every business year has its own rhythm. February is the point where early patterns begin to emerge, and where small, informed adjustments can make a meaningful difference.
Understanding the early signals helps you plan the rest of the year with confidence.
If you’d like to review how your business has started the year, our team would be happy to talk.
Let’s Grow Together.
